Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 182.403191 221.872617 270.992554 337.800902 428.212415 5.492598e+02 7.289321e+02
2025-03-30 136.907389 181.827537 245.072176 344.536174 505.100825 7.707821e+02 1.286744e+03
2025-04-06 113.844136 160.679812 232.684971 359.081541 594.567753 1.064901e+03 2.261599e+03
2025-04-13 95.198612 140.057324 213.385015 352.831281 642.961172 1.320554e+03 3.540121e+03
2025-04-20 87.795837 134.779928 216.661381 386.503013 787.395644 1.922906e+03 7.237358e+03
2025-04-27 81.258578 129.274812 217.657907 415.653550 941.508985 2.754063e+03 1.582409e+04
2025-05-04 75.193572 123.263567 215.969647 438.226934 1096.658052 3.863432e+03 3.806396e+04
2025-05-11 69.382778 116.598082 211.294878 452.039512 1239.332278 5.260832e+03 1.043556e+05
2025-05-18 63.767630 109.349229 203.765438 455.966587 1355.494358 6.890635e+03 3.468667e+05
2025-05-25 58.179529 101.318196 192.922684 447.314440 1421.028870 8.476095e+03 1.461145e+06
2025-06-01 53.096569 93.632627 181.478669 433.447478 1457.926317 1.007787e+04 1.253712e+07
2025-06-08 48.664098 86.747150 170.743581 418.606122 1482.691829 1.181559e+04 1.697381e+10
2025-06-15 47.746249 87.276067 178.148694 465.219621 1877.283091 2.238648e+04 NaN
2025-06-22 44.931832 83.370616 173.967414 472.475908 2076.285333 3.362010e+04 NaN
2025-06-29 43.004005 81.163090 173.710721 494.050940 2411.012355 6.041109e+04 NaN
2025-07-06 40.097894 76.400824 165.875119 484.437569 2516.813950 8.526842e+04 NaN
2025-07-13 39.553943 76.979124 172.621623 535.946125 3240.369547 2.746943e+05 NaN
2025-07-20 38.708444 76.733027 177.048313 581.084617 4070.362009 1.312130e+06 NaN
2025-07-27 37.580489 75.661056 178.880444 616.369857 4952.649260 1.599508e+07 NaN
2025-08-03 36.183361 73.759695 177.866637 638.099235 5782.514771 NaN NaN
2025-08-10 34.558178 71.110202 174.075640 644.296030 6436.594631 NaN NaN
2025-08-17 32.675385 67.624703 167.091135 630.654209 6711.247407 NaN NaN
2025-08-24 30.797248 63.991491 159.135731 608.875081 6778.322464 NaN NaN